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Discussion Starter #242
In CT schools are now closed until the fall. That means the next school years home room class will be, home. My daughter is in 8th grade and asked me if I could help her with her algebra... she had multi step equations. I had to turn to google for help. With no classroom explanations our kids aren't going to learn as much.
 

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We had better hope we still have internet access going forward:

THAT is a concern. With all the WFH at the Lab, we had to drastically increase our capability in both software and hardware, and even make Verizon give us a lot more capacity.
 

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It just keeps going
And the sad thing is that the state of New York is just the first one. At the moment 39k cases, 500 deaths.
Then there is New Jersey and California, 7k and 4k.
Six states with 2k-3k.
Five states with 1k-2k.
The rest of the states still under 1k.
Peak number of cases is still 2 to 3 weeks away in New York, and all other states will follow in 4-6 weeks or so.

17 days ago, March 10th, in total US had less than 1k cases.
Now, today, March 27th, more than 100k cases.

Last 14 days, average daily multiplier 1.325, accuracy 94,8%.
Prediction for the next 9 days, cases:
27.03.20 113 227
28.03.20 150 059
29.03.20 198 872
30.03.20 263 565
31.03.20 349 301
01.04.20 462 927
02.04.20 613 516
03.04.20 813 090
04.04.20 1 077 585
 

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I've been lurking on this thread for a while and just want to say thanks to Speedfin for the information he's posting here. I specifically used those numbers when convincing my grandparents to come back to Canada from Arizona early.

Here is what the Alberta government has made to track data around Covid-19 in our province, I think it would be really interesting to see these kind of stats for hot spots such as Italy, Spain, NY etc.
 

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Last 14 days, average daily multiplier 1.325, accuracy 94,8%.
Prediction for the next 9 days, cases:
27.03.20 113 227
28.03.20 150 059
29.03.20 198 872
30.03.20 263 565
31.03.20 349 301
01.04.20 462 927
02.04.20 613 516
03.04.20 813 090
04.04.20 1 077 585
It is also possible, that testing capacity is already becoming a limiting factor, and that is why (and also average) daily multiplier has been decreasing significantly during the past 7 days.
The smallest multiplier was 1.243, and with that prediction is:
27.03.20 106 186
28.03.20 131 978
29.03.20 164 034
30.03.20 203 876
31.03.20 253 395
01.04.20 314 942
02.04.20 391 438
03.04.20 486 514
04.04.20 604 683
05.04.20 751 553
06.04.20 934 098
07.04.20 1 160 980
 

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NEW YORK (from New York Governor Cuomo daily briefing):
Apex of hospital need could be in 21 days from now in New York
All hospitals need to increase capacity by 50%, some by 100%
Need a total of 140,000 hospital beds. Currently have 53,000 (an additional 87,000 hospital beds are needed)
Need a total of 40,000 ICU beds. Currently have 3,000, with 3,000 ventilators. An additional 37,000 ICU beds are needed

 

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Discussion Starter #252

Lets add a little humor to this thread. I know this is nothing to joke around about. Jeff is a good comedian.
 

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Discussion Starter #253

But our president said something magical will happen and all will be well. Maybe even by Easter!
 

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If the actions, political and individual, in US stays at the current level -> and daily death multiplier stays the same as today, then in one week US will surpass Italy in daily deaths.
And total bodycount one week from now: 12 000
Two weeks 90 000
Three weeks 340 000
Four weeks 1 900 000

I would guess that there will be changes in the actions, sooner or later.
 

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President talking today about calling out National Guard to "enforce" quarantine on NY, CN, NJ. Does this sound like things are getting better? How soon before it's the whole country? This is all happening at light speed...

 

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President talking today about calling out National Guard to "enforce" quarantine on NY, CN, NJ. Does this sound like things are getting better? How soon before it's the whole country? This is all happening at light speed...
Worst case scenario with the level of current actions

NY has 50k+ cases.
It took 14 days to get from 1k to 50k cases in US.

6 days from 10k to 50k, New Jersey
8 days from 5k to 50k, California
10 days from 3k to 50k, 7 states
12 days from 2k to 50k, 3 states
14 days from 1k to 50k, 7 states

So, in 14 days you will have 20 states which are, like NY now, or much worse.

22 days from 100 to 50k, all other states
 
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