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Discussion Starter #221
If more testing was done the more cases would only lower the percentage not the death toll. The amount of people dying daily is alarming. Doesn't matter their age or health condition. A death is a death.
 

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Wife just got back from supermarket (major chain). Paper aisle...completely empty. First time that's happened.

Not a good sign. Although he wants to "open" the country by Easter, it's possible the president may have to "close" the entire country by executive order, by Easter.
 

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If more testing was done the more cases would only lower the percentage not the death toll. The amount of people dying daily is alarming. Doesn't matter their age or health condition. A death is a death.
Exactly my point. Whoever is going to die, will, but there is a lot less panic with a true, say, 1% mortality rate, than there is with an artificially inflated 5% rate. Sheeple see these inflated mortality numbers and panic. We will never know the true numbers, but we'll get closer as we get more data, especially data relating to those who've recovered. I'll reiterate again that this seems less deadly than the last couple pandemics and we didn't purposely crash the stock markets for them and didn't panic hoard all the TP and other supplies. The media has blown this WAY out of proportion for political reasons, and Americans, and the world are suffering from that far more than this latest Chinese virus. People have gone batshit crazy over this and there's no need for it. CHILL, people.

I'm not saying pandemics are GOOD, and it's horrible that people should die en masse, but, imagine how overcrowded the world would be and how many starving/suffering people there would be if there had never been any of these pandemics? Every other top-tier predator population has a relationship with their prey population. We don't, and simply multiply until we're out of food....or something like this happens. Something to ponder...
 

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Wife just got back from supermarket (major chain). Paper aisle...completely empty. First time that's happened.

Not a good sign. Although he wants to "open" the country by Easter, it's possible the president may have to "close" the entire country by executive order, by Easter.
Dunno where you're at, but the paper aisles have been bare for the last few weeks here in NM. I don't think the President can really "close" it more than it already is, and I don't believe he should. People need food and other supplies. Curtail things as much as makes sense, and that's all you can do. Plunging the world into a Depression because of this makes no sense and is worse than the disease itself. He's already pretty much said this.
 

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Trump wants to remove lockdown, open businesses by Easter. We're all doomed in the USA. He has not learned a single thing from countries that were able to contain the virus.
It's simple, don't know why government does not execute: 1- get a fast onsite test kit out to clinics, 2- keep the lockdown until no new cases are reported.

BTW S Korea developed test kits that take only 10min to run. But in US it takes days to get results back. Fastest available at Duke is 6hours. The newest test kit approved take 45min. But will take weeks before it's delivered. Learn from S Korea, and Hong Kong!

And the democrats adding other unrelated items to emergency bill is not helping either. What a shitshow.
 

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Trump wants to remove lockdown, open businesses by Easter. We're all doomed in the USA. He has not learned a single thing from countries that were able to contain the virus.
It's simple, don't know why government does not execute: 1- get a fast onsite test kit out to clinics, 2- keep the lockdown until no new cases are reported.

BTW S Korea developed test kits that take only 10min to run. But in US it takes days to get results back. Fastest available at Duke is 6hours. The newest test kit approved take 45min. But will take weeks before it's delivered. Learn from S Korea, and Hong Kong!

And the democrats adding other unrelated items to emergency bill is not helping either. What a shitshow.
"keep the lockdown until no new cases are reported." That's not practical, want to be on lockdown for a YEAR or more? As I understand it there are a lot of false positives (thankfully better than a false negative), so, I'd rather have a more accurate test even if it did take a little longer. We can flatten the curve all we want but in the end the people who will die from it will anyway, for the most part. Those that wouldn't die after spending weeks in the hospital will survive only because the medical equipment will be available. The hope is that we can get vaccines out quickly enough and build a herd immunity fast enough. But, do we completely destroy the world's economy for a virus that has a worst case mortality rate of only about 3%? I'd say no.
 

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Australia is in Stage 2 shutdown now. Schools are open at the moment. Hospitality workplaces like bars, clubs, cafes etc all closed. Only essential services such as Supermarkets, doctors, hospitals, fuel stations etc are open. Police are enforcing quarantine people to stay home and also state boarders have been closed. They need to go into full lockdown now though. This crap of just changing it every day is a load of crap. People can't pay rent or mortgages. Everything needs to be frozen.
 

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But, do we completely destroy the world's economy for a virus that has a worst case mortality rate of only about 3%? I'd say no.
"We" are not destroying the world's economy...that is what people are totally "not" getting. The world's economy was headed down this road, beginning in 2009. If you want to get into the deeper possibilities, here's something to ponder:

 

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BTW S Korea developed test kits that take only 10min to run. But in US it takes days to get results back. Fastest available at Duke is 6hours. The newest test kit approved take 45min. But will take weeks before it's delivered. Learn from S Korea, and Hong Kong!
BTW, there is two types of tests:
  • The one which identifies the virus/ takes longer
  • The one which identifies the antibodies/ the fast one
The problem is that you need the test which takes longer, if you want to quarantine people who spread the virus.

Both tests are already used worldwide.
 

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US, cases, next 7 days:
71 253
92 510
120 109
155 940
202 462
262 862
341 280
US, bodycount, next 7 days:
1 033
1 368
1 811
2 398
3 176
4 205
5 568
 

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US, cases, next 7 days:
71 253
92 510
120 109
155 940
202 462
262 862
341 280
US, bodycount, next 7 days:
1 033
1 368
1 811
2 398
3 176
4 205
5 568
Bullshit, I'm not buying it.
 

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"We" are not destroying the world's economy...that is what people are totally "not" getting. The world's economy was headed down this road, beginning in 2009. If you want to get into the deeper possibilities, here's something to ponder:

"WE" are if we continue to panic and crash the market. Again, I think the markets need to close until we're over the hump, then limit the amount of shares that change hands to ease back into it. This will prevent panic buying/selling.
 

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Bullshit, I'm not buying it.
Yeah, you are just panicking and buying guns, good for ya...


Well, anyhow, lets see what my predictions/ numbers have been so far (you can also check them by yourself from this thread):
...
21 d ago:
US now ~150 cases, so it takes a week or so and the situation is the same as in italy at the moment. (Italy had 3858 cases, 148 deaths. 10 days later US had 3680 and 49)
20 d ago:
US 164.
19 d ago:
USA 256
200 has been the approx limit when **** really hits the fan.
18 d ago:
USA 373, +54 in 24h, 17 dead, it has begun.

17 d ago:
USA 475
...
14 d ago:
Last 7 days US daily average multiplier has been 1.35.
So, in 7 days 6 000 infected (actual amount 17.03.20 6 411)
14 days 49 000 infected (actual amount 24.03.20 54 881)
21 days 400 000 infected

28 days 3.3 million infected
...if no quarantines are made.
So, good luck...
...
12 d ago:
Predicted amount of cases
24.03.20 51 569 (actual amount 24.03.20 54 881)
25.03.20 68 541 (will be available after GMT 00:00)

...
11 d ago:
24.03.20 51 198 (actual amount 24.03.20 54 881)
25.03.20 68 026 (will be available after GMT 00:00)


What that average daily multiplier tells you, is that in last 12 days in US the growth has been a very typical exponential growth for Covid.
...
3 d ago (Edited):
It is going to get very ugly in very short time frame.
And still it is only the beginning.
...
 

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Yeah, you are just panicking and buying guns, good for ya...


Well, anyhow, lets see what my predictions/ numbers have been so far (you can also check them by yourself from this thread):
...
21 d ago:
US now ~150 cases, so it takes a week or so and the situation is the same as in italy at the moment. (Italy had 3858 cases, 148 deaths. 10 days later US had 3680 and 49)
20 d ago:
US 164.
19 d ago:
USA 256
200 has been the approx limit when **** really hits the fan.
18 d ago:
USA 373, +54 in 24h, 17 dead, it has begun.

17 d ago:
USA 475
...
14 d ago:
Last 7 days US daily average multiplier has been 1.35.
So, in 7 days 6 000 infected (actual amount 17.03.20 6 411)
14 days 49 000 infected (actual amount 24.03.20 54 881)
21 days 400 000 infected

28 days 3.3 million infected
...if no quarantines are made.
So, good luck...
...
12 d ago:
Predicted amount of cases
24.03.20 51 569 (actual amount 24.03.20 54 881)
25.03.20 68 541 (will be available after GMT 00:00)

...
11 d ago:
24.03.20 51 198 (actual amount 24.03.20 54 881)
25.03.20 68 026 (will be available after GMT 00:00)


What that average daily multiplier tells you, is that in last 12 days in US the growth has been a very typical exponential growth for Covid.
...
3 d ago (Edited):
It is going to get very ugly in very short time frame.
And still it is only the beginning.
...
WRONG, the gun purchase had been years in the making, and I'd actually purchased it weeks before any of this. No panic here.
 

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Real numbers are even worse than what speedfinn is posting. So those not buying it, better swallow your pride, go to a clinic/hospital near you to see how long it would take you to get tested.
Lockdown at home is now even enforced in the suburbs, not just big cities. Expected to continue until the end of April. Schools are done for the year.
 
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